Today's crisis is dragging its sad course everything in its path: whole families, health and the few neurons that remain a people stunned so paraphernalia, Ying and repeated jokes.
The latest figures released by the government are not favorable for the economy back siphonage which means that companies are making less, which makes the employee pay the piper, bouncing or pulling down wages (as the case of Homecenter) in order to insure profits. This is most clearly to see the unemployment figures continue to increase reaching double digits and it is anticipated that unemployment would reach 14% by mid-year, numbers not seen in a long time.
What was the government's response? The way that has addressed are broadly twofold: continue to insist that the free market has nothing to do with the crisis (?!!! all other countries are clearly the root of the crisis in the libremercado) strengthening even trade ties with India, a country, like China, with very low production costs, which can sell their products at very low prices and huge scale impossible to give devastating competition with small local economies. Second, charisma and appeal to the eternal forgiveness with Andres Velasco was assured that after her daughter's accident (an accident so it is unfortunate for anyone). The media were responsible for raising a character to San Velasco demigod forgiveness for all performances. Today, almost crying in the media appears our beloved minister saying "today's figures are discouraging." But discouraging why, if the entire world is experiencing a systemic crisis, in which the country's economy more open the world could not escape? And here's why the numbers are daunting: WHY THE MEDIA SHOWS a supposedly "ENCOURAGING" Forward MORBO Farandulera TO OUR MINDS! But sooner or later fiction must collide with reality, and becomes daunting.
But the strange thing about all this that people, despite many layoffs, do not realize the magnitude of the crisis. What is so different this deflationary crisis with other inflationary crisis? As a deflationary crisis, prices of products are much cheaper (because they lose their market value), discounts on end (up to 50% Falabella) provided sell the accumulated stock in the warehouse and collect some profits. Then people "happy" can buy what used to be able to lower prices. But the other side of the coin. As profits are lower, layoffs happen to recover profits, the situation of workers is precarious and not even enough for them to purchase these products now on sale. But the person is "happy" life because he sees a palpable rise in prices, which is what irritates a whole society accustomed to react when touched in pocket now. " Faced with inflationary crisis, people look to increase prices of products and reacts immediately, because it is more visible. The deflationary crisis some call the crisis ninja, this one, but you can not see. Obviously the role of the media is important in this game: insentivar OFERTON for consumption credit like crazy, hipotecazos, etc.
The figures speak for themselves, here are some data provided by Diario Financiero (required reading for entrepreneurs)
Guilisasti: "We have a deep slowdown in the economy" Diario Financiero Online
President of the Confederation of Production and Commerce (CPC), Rafael Guilisasti, spoke today to the low activity in February, which in his opinion evidence that "we are with a deep slowdown in the economy."
"The figures are reflecting a reality, this corresponds to the previous month, had indicators that pointed to the Imacec would take a fall, a drop deep and that is reflecting a finding of real and deep the economic crisis, nothing more, "said Guilisasti.
Although declined to projections, the business leader said "we are with a deep slowdown in the economy can get recessions," he said.
CCS: unemployment would reach 12% in winter Diario Financiero Online
The downturn reflected in the Imacec of -3.9% in February (12-month change) is "compelling evidence that economic adjustment is manifesting itself in virtually all fronts of activity of the Chilean economy," said today the Santiago Chamber of Commerce (CCS).
It said that the sustained decline in industrial production, culminating in a fall of -11.5% in twelve months (as of February) is telling in this regard, as it reflects a rate of decline similar to that of advanced economies and a very broad spectrum of influence and harmful. The 85% of the manufacturing sector is declining activity, including products related to domestic consumption, exports and fixed capital formation, he added.
employment figures are not as obvious INE yet, partly because the pattern of quarterly moving averages of the statistics, said the CCS. However, "the current pace of adjustment may entail unemployment rates of around 11% and 12% in the winter months," he said.
Preliminary forecasts for March are also positive, with figures for exports and imports in the first half, indicating that the adjustment of domestic consumption continues to progress, as well as investment and exports.
The CCS said that the stage seems set for the rest of the year suggests that economic growth for 2009 "May be defined in the negative zone."
entity recalled that the previous recession of 1998-1999 produced 11 months of consecutive falls in the Imacec, "which repeated this time, can expect a recovery only towards the last quarter of 2009."
"It is clear that this economic downturn it goes across the Chilean economy will be eased by the flexible monetary policy and fiscal support programs. They promise to further domestic spending, working with the fluidity of financial markets and boost efficiency economic, "he said.
However, he adds, "it is important protective effect on the type of change that can result from financing government spending with savings held abroad. Impacts on the exporting sector resulting from the contraction of international trade are significant, so it is advisable not to add additional elements that contribute to worsen the current situation. "
New Project interest rate cut
A new clipping monetary policy rate, this time from 50 basis points today projected Investment Security experts, after learning about the sharp contraction of -3.9% suffered by the activity during the month of February.
This, because, as explained adjustment of the economy has been even more pronounced than expected a month ago.
This setting also adds to the deteriorating job market, stronger than expected, with a sharp drop in seasonally adjusted employment and a further increase in the unemployment rate. With this background in hand, the group believes that the rate would settle at 1.75%.
However, advanced Security Investment experts in a scenario of lower inflation, monetary easing may be even higher, reaching 75 or 100 basis points.
The fee fixed by the Central Bank board is currently at 2.25% after the March meeting of the Central Council decided to bring it down 250 basis points, accumulated in four months a reduction of 600 basis points.
The next meeting of the BCV will be this Thursday which will define the future of the fee.
EDUCATE, Organize and fight !!!!!!!!!!!!
CRISES ...¡¡¡ ALWAYS OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO END CAPITALISM!
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